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| <h1>STEM, The Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeler</h1>
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| <p> This document is a proposal to create a new Eclipse Project under
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| the <a href="/technology/">Eclipse Technology Project</a> called the
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| Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeler or <a
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| href="http://www.eclipse.org/ohf/components/stem/">STEM</a>. STEM is
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| currently a component of the <a
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| href="http://www.eclipse.org/ohf/">Open Healthcare Framework (OHF)</a>
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| project, which is also under the
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| Eclipse
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| Technology Project.</p> |
| |
| <p>This proposal is presented in accordance with the <a |
| href="/projects/dev_process/proposal-phase.php">Eclipse Development |
| Process</a> and is written to declare the project's intent and scope |
| as well as to solicit additional participation and feedback from the |
| Eclipse community. You are invited to join the project and to provide |
| feedback using the <a |
| href="http://www.eclipse.org/newsportal/thread.php?group=eclipse.technology.ohf"> |
| http://www.eclipse.org/newsportal/thread.php?group=eclipse.technology.ohf |
| </a>newsgroup.</p> |
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| <h2>Background</h2>
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| <p> In the past year (2008), the OHF has seen all of its components,
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| other than STEM, migrate either to other parts of Eclipse |
| (e.g., <ahref="http://www.eclipse.org/ohf/components/soda/"> SODA</a>) or to
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| the external <a href="http://www.openhealthtools.org/"> Open
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| Healthcare Tools (OHT )</a> organization. This has left STEM as the
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| only active component in the OHF. . The consensus of the four STEM
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| committers is that they are very happy with Eclipse and how it is
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| managed and wish the project to remain with the Foundation. However,
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| given that the rest of the OHF project has moved, it makes sense to
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| move STEM out of the OHF and place it directly under the <a
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| href="/technology/">Eclipse Technology Project</a>. The STEM project
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| members are looking forward to being a project separate from the OHF
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| to better establish their "brand" and facilitate communications with
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| users, contributors and adopters. One of the challenges of being a
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| component of the OHF is that STEM was mixed in with many different,
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| completely unrelated, projects; this included sharing a project web
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| page, newsgroup, developer mailing list and project metadata. This
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| sharing tended to dilute STEM's effectiveness in communicating with
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| and developing its community. For instance, the OHF project metadata
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| is out-of-date and has been for some time; the STEM project has been
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| unable to correct that issue.
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| </p>
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| <p> STEM began life as a platform for the collaborative development of
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| mathematical models that characterize the spread of infectious
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| diseases in both time and space. STEM was originally developed by <a
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| href="http://www.research.ibm.com/">IBM Research</a> at its <a
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| href="http://www.almaden.ibm.com/">Almaden Research Center</a> to be
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| part of <a
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| href="http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/19640.wss"> IBM's
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| Global Pandemic Initiative (GPI)</a>, a working group of global
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| healthcare "players" (WHO, UN, etc) that IBM formed to help plan for,
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| and combat, the threat of global pandemic influenza. As part of its
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| contribution to the GPI, IBM <a
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| href="http://www-03.ibm.com/industries/government/us/detail/news/G708487G68482D55.html">
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| donated</a> the source code for STEM to the Eclipse foundation in May
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| 2007. </p>
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| <p> STEM enables epidemiologists and other researchers to develop
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| disease models quickly and collaboratively. STEM includes the basic
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| data sets that define the political geography, demographic data and
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| transportation infrastructure for the entire planet, saving the need
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| for modelers to collect this data on their own. It also includes
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| configurable "text book" disease models they can use immediately and
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| extensive editors and wizards that ease model creation. STEM includes
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| built-in views to visualize the geographic spread of diseases as well
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| as an interface to <a href="http://earth.google.com/"> Google
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| Earth</a>. Each disease model is composed of a set of interchangeable
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| components that supply different aspects of the model, these include
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| data sets, as well as mathematics. These components can be created by
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| different researchers and easily shared, thereby fostering cooperation
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| and collaboration. As a diease modeling system, STEM has an active and
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| growing community. </p>
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| <h2>Technical Scope </h2>
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| <p> At its core, STEM is a framework for composing arbitrary graphs
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| (nodes, edges, labels) from different "parts" and then managing
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| computations that use the graph as both a source of data and as place
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| to record state information. One of the main innovations provided by
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| STEM is that it allows the graph used during a simulation to be
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| composed from different parts that represent different aspects of the
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| eventual simulation. For instance, sets of labeled nodes that
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| represent geographic locations can be combined with sets of labels
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| that provide population data for those edges for a particular time
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| period (e.g., 1918). Similarly, different sets of edges can be added
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| to the graph to incorporate different kinds of relationships, such as
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| transportation infrastructure or simple physical relationships such as
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| sharing a common border. Computation is added to the mix through a
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| similar well defined interface to the graph. These different parts
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| can be aggregated and saved for reuse in multiple different models.
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| They can also be exported and distributed to other users. It is this
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| aggregation and reuse that promotes collaboration as different
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| components can be created by different parties and easily shared.
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| </p>
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| <p> Having such a general framework enables a variety of other kinds
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| of applications, not all of which are simulations. It is possible,
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| for instance, to run STEM in "real-time" where it uses "wall-clock"
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| time when manipulating the state of the underlying graph and have it
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| access external data sources as part of that process. Integrating
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| real-time weather information or other real-time environmental data
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| into a model in STEM is an example. This ability allows STEM to be
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| applied to decision support applications that require the integration
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| of "situational awareness" and analytics; examples would be disaster
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| planning and response, securities trading and risk management and
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| logistical planning. The integration of external data sources through
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| SOA and RSS feeds is a future step being considered for the project.
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| </p>
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| <p> The disease modeling framework, built upon the core, has well
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| established functionality, but is deliberately designed to be
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| extensible and has an unlimited capacity to absorb new mathematics and
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| other aspects of disease models. For the project, however, it aims to
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| provide a refined, but limited, set of built-in "text book" disease
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| model mathematics as well as another set of advanced experimental
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| models that result from project member's own research. </p>
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| <p> The incorporation of real-time data sources into STEM is an area
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| for future development. The scope and breadth of which is uncertain
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| and likely dependent on the particular application domains used as
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| examples. </p>
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| <p> There are two aspects to STEM, the core for developing simulation
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| frameworks, and actual simulation frameworks. The mandates for
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| developing both of these aspects tend to define and govern their
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| growth. The core for simulation frameworks is somewhat organically
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| constrained as features are only added to it to support the needs of
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| actual simulation frameworks such as disease modeling. The base
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| comprises some nine EMF Ecore models that are used to generate a
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| significant portion of the core code; no new models are anticipated at
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| this time. The remainder of the work on the core is to polish and
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| refine aspects of the core exposed to users such as model editors,
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| wizards and other parts of the GUI. </p>
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| <p> STEM is more than a disease modeling system, however, the same
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| attributes that make a good collaborative system for disease modeling
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| are the same ones that facilitate other kinds of model development.
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| To this end, STEM was designed and implemented from its very inception
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| to be a more versatile platform and framework, with disease modeling
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| being a very complete example "application." </p>
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| <h2>Organization</h2> |
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| <h3>Mentors</h3> |
| <ul> |
| <li>Ed Merks</li> |
| <li>Chris Aniszczyk</li> |
| </ul>
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| <h3>Committers</h3>
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| STEM currently has four existing and active Eclipse Committers.
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| <ul>
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| <li> <p> Daniel Ford (daford att almaden.ibm.com) </p> <p> Daniel
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| was the initial Eclipse Committer for STEM. His contributions to the
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| system include the initial concept of a composable graph framework and
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| the general architecture and organization of STEM. He also designed
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| the UML models that underpin STEM's implementation and is responsible
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| for their implementation using the Eclipse Modeling Framework (EMF).
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| Daniel wrote the initial versions of most of the components that
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| constituted the original STEM contribution, and continues to maintain
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| a significant number of them today. Daniel created the initial CQ for
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| STEM's source code and a second one for STEM's data sets. He worked
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| closing with Barb Cochrane on the Eclipse IP process to quickly
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| "clear" the original STEM source code contribution. He also worked on
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| the initial part of the (much) longer IP processing of the STEM data
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| sets (later passing that responsibility to James Kaufman). Daniel
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| received his Ph.D. in Computer Science from the University of Waterloo
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| and is now a Research Staff Member (RSM) at the IBM Almaden Research
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| Center in San Jose, CA. </p> </li>
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| <li><p> James Kaufman (kaufman att almaden.ibm.com) </p><p> James
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| founded the STEM project with Daniel Ford and was the project's second
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| Eclipse committer. James' has a wide range of contributions to the
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| OHF and the STEM project under Eclipse. He initiated the formation of
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| the OHF and as the IBM manager of a number of internal IBM Research
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| Healthcare related projects, pursued the legal and organizational
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| challenges that lead to their donation to Eclipse to form the initial
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| OHF code base. Later, James followed the same path with STEM and
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| moved it from an internal IBM Research project to an open source
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| project under Eclipse. James is also an active and critical
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| contributor to the STEM code base with primary responsibility in the
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| development and implementation of mathematical models for the
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| characterization of disease propagation and the development and
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| implementation of mathematical tools and for epidemiological data
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| analysis in STEM. James also worked closely with the IBM and Eclipse
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| legal teams to "clear" the STEM contribution to Eclipse. James
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| received his Ph.D. in Physics from UCSB and is a Manager and Research
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| Staff Member at the IBM Almaden Research Center in San Jose, CA.</p>
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| </li>
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| <li><p> Stefan Edlund (sedlund att us.ibm.com)</p> <p> Stefan Edlund
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| is an Eclipse Committer has contributed to STEM since August
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| 2008. Stefan has been working on the logging component in STEM,
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| dramatically improving its performance. Stefan has also been
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| contributing to the analytics perspective as well as the mathematics
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| for STEM disease models. Stefan Edlund is a Senior Software Engineer
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| at the IBM Almaden Research Center in San Jose, CA.</p> </li>
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| <li><p> Yossi Mesika (mesika att il.ibm.com) </p><p> Yossi is an
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| Eclipse Committer who contributed several new features and
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| improvements to the STEM project. Yossi worked on the graphical
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| rendering of the geographical maps within STEM and added some useful
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| features like presenting graph edges and the use of color
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| providers. Yossi also used performance testing tools for finding
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| memory leaks and improving the overall performance of STEM. Yossi is
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| also the release engineer of STEM and responsible for the automatic
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| process of generating weekly builds and publishing those in the Web
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| site. Yossi had also made major contributions to the Eclipse Open
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| Health Framework (OHF). Yossi is a Research Staff Member at the IBM
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| Haifa Research Labs in Israel.</p> </li>
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| </ul>
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| <h3>Collaborations</h3>
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| <p> The STEM project is working on the development of its community.
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| The project is doing well in developing a core set of <b>Committers</b> and
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| <b>Users</b> (listed below). The project is working hard on
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| developing relationships with government, industry and academia. In
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| academia, the project is nurturing graduate students in both
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| Epidemiology and Operations Research to create a natural class of
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| <b>Adopters</b> to join the project. </p>
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| <ul>
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| <li> <p> <a href="http://www.hq.af.mil/"> USAF</a>: STEM currently has
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| multi-year funding from the United States Air Force for the general
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| development of the framework as well as for research into specialized
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| analytics for "reverse engineering" disease model configurations from
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| incident data. </p></li>
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| <li><p> <a href="http://www.uvm.edu/">University of Vermont</a>: STEM
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| has a successful ongoing collaboration with researchers Dr. Charles
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| Hulse (Charles.Hulse at uvm.edu) and Joanna Conant (Joanna.Conant at
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| uvm.edu) at the University of Vermont. This collaboration has
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| resulted in one paper with more likely to come in the future. </p>
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| <p> Kaufman, J., Connance, J., Ford, D.A., Kirhata, W., Jones, B.A.,
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| Douglas, J.V., "Assessing the Accuracy of Spatiotemporal
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| Epidemiological Models," BioSecure 2008, Raleigh, North Carolina,
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| Dec. 2, 2008.</p> </li>
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| <li> <p> <a href="www.jhu.edu">Johns Hopkins</a>: The STEM project
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| also collaborates with the <a href="http://www.jhsph.edu/">Johns
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| Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health</a>, where we work with
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| Epidemiology Ph.D., Graduate Student Justin Lesler on the validation
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| of the mathematics of our disease models. (Full Disclosure: IBM pays
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| Justin Lessler for this work). </p></li>
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| <li><p><a href="www.mit.edu>">MIT</a>: STEM has an ongoing
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| collaboration with Professor Dick Larson, in the <a
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| href="http://www.mit.edu/~orc/">Operations Research Department</a> at
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| MIT for the development of advanced disease models.</p></li>
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| <li><p><a href="http://www.mecids.org/index.php"> Middle East
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| Consortium for Infectious Disease Surveillance</a> (MECIDS): An
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| organization supported by the <a
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| href="http://www.nti.org/index.php">Nuclear Threat Initiative</a>
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| (NTI) and <a href="http://www.sfcg.org/">Search for Common Ground</a>,
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| which includes the public health departments of <a
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| href="http://www.health.gov.il/english/"> Israeli<a>, <a
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| href="http://www.moh.gov.jo/MOH/En/home.php">Jordan</a>, and <a
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| href="http://www.moh.gov.ps/">Palestinian</a>. As well as <a
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| href="http://www.tau.ac.il/index-eng.html"> Tel Aviv University</a>
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| and <a href="http://www.alquds.edu/index.php"> Al Quds University
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| </a>.
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| </p></li>
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| <li><p> <a href="http://www.publichealth.pitt.edu/"> University of
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| Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health</a> and <a
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| href="http://www.medschool.pitt.edu/"> School of Medicine</a>,
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| Prof. Burce Lee</p></li>
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| </ul>
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| <h2>Tentative Plan </h2><p>
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| 2009-06 V0.4: Base release for Disease modeling
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| 2009-12 V0.5: Non-disease modeling example application
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| 2010-06 V0.6: Integrated situational awareness and analytics
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